Países en Mayor Declive (2024–2050)
193 Países
Un número creciente de países se enfrenta al declive demográfico impulsado por tasas de fecundidad persistentemente bajas, poblaciones envejecidas y emigración. Esta tendencia es más pronunciada en Europa del Este, Asia Oriental y el sur de Europa, donde las tasas de natalidad han caído muy por debajo del nivel de reemplazo de 2,1 hijos por mujer. El declive demográfico plantea importantes desafíos económicos: fuerzas laborales menguantes, ratios de dependencia crecientes y mayor presión sobre los sistemas de pensiones y sanitarios. Se prevé que los países que se enumeran a continuación experimenten las mayores disminuciones de población entre 2024 y 2050. Abordar el declive demográfico requiere políticas innovadoras en inmigración, apoyo familiar y reestructuración económica.
| # | País | Pob. 2024 | Pob. 2050 | Cambio |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Kosovo
Europa |
1.594.353 | 482.340 | -69.7% |
| 2 |
Moldavia
Europa |
2.402.306 | 1.457.801 | -39.3% |
| 3 |
Albania
Europa |
2.377.128 | 1.697.820 | -28.6% |
| 4 |
Letonia
Europa |
1.866.124 | 1.521.698 | -18.5% |
| 5 |
San Vicente y las Granadinas
América del Norte |
100.616 | 86.414 | -14.1% |
| 6 |
Bosnia y Herzegovina
Europa |
3.164.253 | 2.744.029 | -13.3% |
| 7 |
Serbia
Europa |
6.586.476 | 5.837.600 | -11.4% |
| 8 |
Sri Lanka
Asia |
21.916.000 | 19.446.052 | -11.3% |
| 9 |
Islas Vírgenes de los Estados Unidos
América del Norte |
104.377 | 93.313 | -10.6% |
| 10 |
Bielorrusia
Europa |
9.132.629 | 8.195.193 | -10.3% |
| 11 |
Japón
Asia |
123.975.371 | 112.788.849 | -9% |
| 12 |
Georgia
Asia |
3.699.557 | 3.370.201 | -8.9% |
| 13 |
Tonga
Oceanía |
104.175 | 95.424 | -8.4% |
| 14 |
Cuba
América del Norte |
10.979.783 | 10.143.701 | -7.6% |
| 15 |
Polonia
Europa |
36.559.233 | 33.886.763 | -7.3% |
| 16 |
Hungría
Europa |
9.562.065 | 8.931.364 | -6.6% |
| 17 |
Mauricio
África |
1.245.779 | 1.185.174 | -4.9% |
| 18 |
Rusia
Europa |
143.533.851 | 137.339.757 | -4.3% |
| 19 |
Macedonia del Norte
Europa |
1.824.359 | 1.750.985 | -4% |
| 20 |
Hong Kong
Asia |
7.524.100 | 7.268.572 | -3.4% |
| 21 |
Nepal
Asia |
29.651.054 | 28.722.220 | -3.1% |
| 22 |
China
Asia |
1.408.975.000 | 1.371.883.856 | -2.6% |
| 23 |
Eslovaquia
Europa |
5.422.069 | 5.321.809 | -1.8% |
| 24 |
Bulgaria
Europa |
6.441.421 | 6.330.273 | -1.7% |
| 25 |
Italia
Europa |
58.952.704 | 58.273.910 | -1.2% |
| 26 |
Tailandia
Asia |
71.668.011 | 70.926.053 | -1% |
| 27 |
Uruguay
América del Sur |
3.386.588 | 3.354.395 | -1% |
| 28 |
Rumanía
Europa |
19.051.804 | 18.852.274 | -1% |
| 29 |
Jamaica
América del Norte |
2.839.175 | 2.825.968 | -0.5% |
| 30 |
Grecia
Europa |
10.405.134 | 10.357.210 | -0.5% |
| 31 |
Puerto Rico
América del Norte |
3.203.295 | 3.192.545 | -0.3% |
| 32 |
Montenegro
Europa |
623.525 | 623.438 | 0% |
| 33 |
Barbados
América del Norte |
282.467 | 285.320 | 1% |
| 34 |
Trinidad y Tobago
América del Norte |
1.368.333 | 1.386.282 | 1.3% |
| 35 |
Corea del Sur
Asia |
51.751.065 | 52.590.851 | 1.6% |
| 36 |
Granada
América del Norte |
117.207 | 119.969 | 2.4% |
| 37 |
Estonia
Europa |
1.372.341 | 1.417.602 | 3.3% |
| 38 |
Croacia
Europa |
3.866.200 | 4.009.964 | 3.7% |
| 39 |
Islandia
Europa |
386.506 | 405.213 | 4.8% |
| 40 |
Turquía
Asia |
85.518.661 | 89.798.102 | 5% |
| 41 |
Polinesia Francesa
Oceanía |
281.807 | 297.141 | 5.4% |
| 42 |
Santa Lucía
América del Norte |
179.744 | 189.971 | 5.7% |
| 43 |
Francia
Europa |
68.551.653 | 72.551.045 | 5.8% |
| 44 |
Alemania
Europa |
83.516.593 | 88.637.091 | 6.1% |
| 45 |
Corea del Norte
Asia |
26.498.823 | 28.304.867 | 6.8% |
| 46 |
Suecia
Europa |
10.569.709 | 11.311.419 | 7% |
| 47 |
Eslovenia
Europa |
2.127.400 | 2.283.226 | 7.3% |
| 48 |
Ucrania
Europa |
37.860.221 | 40.724.099 | 7.6% |
| 49 |
Maldivas
Asia |
527.799 | 568.404 | 7.7% |
| 50 |
Argentina
América del Sur |
45.696.159 | 49.246.324 | 7.8% |
| 51 |
Venezuela
América del Sur |
28.405.543 | 30.767.533 | 8.3% |
| 52 |
Chequia
Europa |
10.905.028 | 11.830.499 | 8.5% |
| 53 |
Brasil
América del Sur |
211.998.573 | 231.430.711 | 9.2% |
| 54 |
El Salvador
América del Norte |
6.338.193 | 6.988.662 | 10.3% |
| 55 |
Bahamas
América del Norte |
401.283 | 443.285 | 10.5% |
| 56 |
Micronesia
Oceanía |
113.160 | 125.251 | 10.7% |
| 57 |
Azerbaiyán
Asia |
10.202.830 | 11.319.062 | 10.9% |
| 58 |
Costa Rica
América del Norte |
5.129.910 | 5.686.635 | 10.9% |
| 59 |
Cabo Verde
África |
524.877 | 583.067 | 11.1% |
| 60 |
Fiyi
Oceanía |
928.784 | 1.034.980 | 11.4% |
| 61 |
Austria
Europa |
9.177.982 | 10.236.556 | 11.5% |
| 62 |
Dinamarca
Europa |
5.976.992 | 6.664.904 | 11.5% |
| 63 |
Chile
América del Sur |
19.764.771 | 22.199.719 | 12.3% |
| 64 |
Líbano
Asia |
5.805.962 | 6.554.200 | 12.9% |
| 65 |
Guyana
América del Sur |
831.087 | 940.307 | 13.1% |
| 66 |
Lituania
Europa |
2.888.278 | 3.273.766 | 13.3% |
| 67 |
Aruba
América del Norte |
107.995 | 122.700 | 13.6% |
| 68 |
Samoa
Oceanía |
218.019 | 249.487 | 14.4% |
| 69 |
Túnez
África |
12.277.109 | 14.057.051 | 14.5% |
| 70 |
Vietnam
Asia |
100.987.686 | 115.747.313 | 14.6% |
| 71 |
Finlandia
Europa |
5.619.911 | 6.457.083 | 14.9% |
| 72 |
Países Bajos
Europa |
17.993.485 | 20.701.456 | 15% |
| 73 |
Bután
Asia |
791.524 | 911.146 | 15.1% |
| 74 |
Bélgica
Europa |
11.858.610 | 13.692.586 | 15.5% |
| 75 |
Myanmar
Asia |
54.500.091 | 63.048.224 | 15.7% |
| 76 |
Baréin
Asia |
1.588.670 | 1.861.424 | 17.2% |
| 77 |
Guam
Oceanía |
167.777 | 197.724 | 17.8% |
| 78 |
Sudán
África |
50.448.963 | 60.070.210 | 19.1% |
| 79 |
Indonesia
Asia |
283.487.931 | 337.952.241 | 19.2% |
| 80 |
Brunéi
Asia |
462.721 | 552.172 | 19.3% |
| 81 |
Filipinas
Asia |
115.843.670 | 138.448.839 | 19.5% |
| 82 |
República Dominicana
América del Norte |
11.427.557 | 13.718.132 | 20% |
| 83 |
Curazao
América del Norte |
155.967 | 187.198 | 20% |
| 84 |
Ecuador
América del Sur |
18.135.478 | 21.837.910 | 20.4% |
| 85 |
México
América del Norte |
130.861.007 | 157.575.696 | 20.4% |
| 86 |
Surinam
América del Sur |
634.431 | 766.801 | 20.9% |
| 87 |
India
Asia |
1.450.935.791 | 1.758.519.525 | 21.2% |
| 88 |
Kuwait
Asia |
4.897.263 | 5.946.395 | 21.4% |
| 89 |
Nueva Caledonia
Oceanía |
292.639 | 359.282 | 22.8% |
| 90 |
Noruega
Europa |
5.572.279 | 6.839.976 | 22.8% |
| 91 |
Marruecos
África |
38.081.173 | 46.976.028 | 23.4% |
| 92 |
Estados Unidos
América del Norte |
340.110.988 | 419.876.982 | 23.5% |
| 93 |
Chipre
Asia |
1.358.282 | 1.679.734 | 23.7% |
| 94 |
Jordania
Asia |
11.552.876 | 14.300.111 | 23.8% |
| 95 |
Esuatini
África |
1.242.822 | 1.540.740 | 24% |
| 96 |
España
Europa |
48.848.840 | 60.888.472 | 24.6% |
| 97 |
Libia
África |
7.381.023 | 9.210.261 | 24.8% |
| 98 |
Irán
Asia |
91.567.738 | 114.914.867 | 25.5% |
| 99 |
Reino Unido
Europa |
69.226.000 | 87.121.132 | 25.9% |
| 100 |
Colombia
América del Sur |
52.886.363 | 66.679.564 | 26.1% |
| 101 |
Portugal
Europa |
10.694.681 | 13.544.554 | 26.6% |
| 102 |
Perú
América del Sur |
34.217.848 | 43.321.358 | 26.6% |
| 103 |
Lesoto
África |
2.337.423 | 2.973.715 | 27.2% |
| 104 |
Haití
América del Norte |
11.772.557 | 15.100.817 | 28.3% |
| 105 |
Timor-Leste
Asia |
1.400.638 | 1.804.192 | 28.8% |
| 106 |
Macao
Asia |
687.000 | 889.973 | 29.5% |
| 107 |
Bangladés
Asia |
173.562.364 | 225.509.695 | 29.9% |
| 108 |
Malasia
Asia |
35.557.673 | 46.259.275 | 30.1% |
| 109 |
Camboya
Asia |
17.638.801 | 22.973.804 | 30.2% |
| 110 |
Paraguay
América del Sur |
6.929.153 | 9.041.300 | 30.5% |
| 111 |
Mongolia
Asia |
3.524.788 | 4.610.584 | 30.8% |
| 112 |
Sudáfrica
África |
64.007.187 | 83.789.173 | 30.9% |
| 113 |
Israel
Asia |
9.974.400 | 13.101.026 | 31.3% |
| 114 |
Panamá
América del Norte |
4.515.577 | 5.932.403 | 31.4% |
| 115 |
Kazajistán
Asia |
20.592.571 | 27.149.715 | 31.8% |
| 116 |
Suiza
Europa |
9.005.582 | 11.929.904 | 32.5% |
| 117 |
Seychelles
África |
121.354 | 160.979 | 32.7% |
| 118 |
Nicaragua
América del Norte |
6.916.140 | 9.244.524 | 33.7% |
| 119 |
Laos
Asia |
7.769.819 | 10.411.119 | 34% |
| 120 |
Yibuti
África |
1.168.722 | 1.566.320 | 34% |
| 121 |
Bolivia
América del Sur |
12.413.315 | 16.682.169 | 34.4% |
| 122 |
Argelia
África |
46.814.308 | 63.269.034 | 35.1% |
| 123 |
Belice
América del Norte |
417.072 | 568.807 | 36.4% |
| 124 |
Kiribati
Oceanía |
134.518 | 185.356 | 37.8% |
| 125 |
Pakistán
Asia |
251.269.164 | 347.767.910 | 38.4% |
| 126 |
Guatemala
América del Norte |
18.406.359 | 25.648.541 | 39.3% |
| 127 |
Irlanda
Europa |
5.395.790 | 7.571.204 | 40.3% |
| 128 |
Luxemburgo
Europa |
677.012 | 950.293 | 40.4% |
| 129 |
Botsuana
África |
2.521.139 | 3.584.494 | 42.2% |
| 130 |
Nueva Zelanda
Oceanía |
5.287.500 | 7.571.336 | 43.2% |
| 131 |
Honduras
América del Norte |
10.825.703 | 15.554.738 | 43.7% |
| 132 |
Kirguistán
Asia |
7.221.868 | 10.422.644 | 44.3% |
| 133 |
Egipto
África |
116.538.258 | 169.191.501 | 45.2% |
| 134 |
Turkmenistán
Asia |
7.494.498 | 10.921.091 | 45.7% |
| 135 |
Zimbabue
África |
16.634.373 | 24.394.762 | 46.7% |
| 136 |
Papúa Nueva Guinea
Oceanía |
10.576.502 | 15.517.766 | 46.7% |
| 137 |
Eritrea
África |
3.535.603 | 5.275.688 | 49.2% |
| 138 |
Ghana
África |
34.427.414 | 51.517.303 | 49.6% |
| 139 |
Comoras
África |
866.628 | 1.301.488 | 50.2% |
| 140 |
Tayikistán
Asia |
10.590.927 | 15.991.984 | 51% |
| 141 |
Kenia
África |
56.432.944 | 85.945.281 | 52.3% |
| 142 |
Uzbekistán
Asia |
36.361.859 | 55.533.060 | 52.7% |
| 143 |
Australia
Oceanía |
27.196.812 | 41.741.598 | 53.5% |
| 144 |
Singapur
Asia |
6.036.860 | 9.266.654 | 53.5% |
| 145 |
Santo Tomé y Príncipe
África |
235.536 | 362.011 | 53.7% |
| 146 |
Nigeria
África |
232.679.478 | 363.961.104 | 56.4% |
| 147 |
Sierra Leona
África |
8.642.022 | 13.632.758 | 57.7% |
| 148 |
Irak
Asia |
46.042.015 | 72.663.254 | 57.8% |
| 149 |
Ruanda
África |
14.256.567 | 22.581.192 | 58.4% |
| 150 |
Gabón
África |
2.538.952 | 4.033.995 | 58.9% |
| 151 |
Liberia
África |
5.612.817 | 8.919.569 | 58.9% |
| 152 |
Guinea-Bisáu
África |
2.201.352 | 3.534.134 | 60.5% |
| 153 |
Namibia
África |
3.030.131 | 4.897.851 | 61.6% |
| 154 |
Togo
África |
9.515.236 | 15.394.052 | 61.8% |
| 155 |
Burkina Faso
África |
23.548.781 | 38.135.337 | 61.9% |
| 156 |
Vanuatu
Oceanía |
327.777 | 533.926 | 62.9% |
| 157 |
Gambia
África |
2.759.988 | 4.499.442 | 63% |
| 158 |
Armenia
Asia |
3.033.500 | 4.977.298 | 64.1% |
| 159 |
Senegal
África |
18.501.984 | 30.441.428 | 64.5% |
| 160 |
Palestina
Asia |
5.289.152 | 8.775.974 | 65.9% |
| 161 |
Islas Salomón
Oceanía |
819.198 | 1.362.283 | 66.3% |
| 162 |
Guinea
África |
14.754.785 | 24.667.964 | 67.2% |
| 163 |
Congo
África |
6.332.961 | 10.593.083 | 67.3% |
| 164 |
Guinea Ecuatorial
África |
1.892.516 | 3.169.923 | 67.5% |
| 165 |
Costa de Marfil
África |
31.934.230 | 53.847.569 | 68.6% |
| 166 |
Madagascar
África |
31.964.956 | 53.888.688 | 68.6% |
| 167 |
Benín
África |
14.462.724 | 24.519.814 | 69.5% |
| 168 |
Malaui
África |
21.655.286 | 37.617.972 | 73.7% |
| 169 |
Etiopía
África |
132.059.767 | 229.749.642 | 74% |
| 170 |
Burundi
África |
14.047.786 | 24.441.721 | 74% |
| 171 |
Camerún
África |
29.123.744 | 50.982.154 | 75.1% |
| 172 |
Uganda
África |
50.015.092 | 90.209.038 | 80.4% |
| 173 |
Zambia
África |
21.314.956 | 38.920.106 | 82.6% |
| 174 |
Afganistán
Asia |
42.647.492 | 78.281.248 | 83.6% |
| 175 |
Malta
Europa |
568.847 | 1.051.800 | 84.9% |
| 176 |
Tanzania
África |
68.560.157 | 126.852.590 | 85% |
| 177 |
Mauritania
África |
5.169.395 | 9.584.238 | 85.4% |
| 178 |
Mozambique
África |
34.631.766 | 64.698.951 | 86.8% |
| 179 |
Malí
África |
24.478.595 | 45.936.372 | 87.7% |
| 180 |
Canadá
América del Norte |
41.288.599 | 77.827.500 | 88.5% |
| 181 |
Yemen
Asia |
40.583.164 | 76.820.227 | 89.3% |
| 182 |
Angola
África |
37.885.849 | 72.661.550 | 91.8% |
| 183 |
República Democrática del Congo
África |
109.276.265 | 218.543.121 | 100% |
| 184 |
Níger
África |
27.032.412 | 54.502.451 | 101.6% |
| 185 |
República Centroafricana
África |
5.330.690 | 11.023.801 | 106.8% |
| 186 |
Somalia
África |
19.009.151 | 39.984.794 | 110.3% |
| 187 |
Sudán del Sur
África |
11.943.408 | 27.588.798 | 131% |
| 188 |
Siria
Asia |
24.672.760 | 63.813.081 | 158.6% |
| 189 |
Omán
Asia |
5.281.538 | 13.743.837 | 160.2% |
| 190 |
Arabia Saudita
Asia |
35.300.280 | 94.460.425 | 167.6% |
| 191 |
Emiratos Árabes Unidos
Asia |
10.986.400 | 29.718.796 | 170.5% |
| 192 |
Chad
África |
20.299.123 | 58.029.297 | 185.9% |
| 193 |
Catar
Asia |
2.857.822 | 13.322.981 | 366.2% |